The Sports Man Weekly NFL Picks (Week 11)
Alright, I admit that after my near flawless week where I went 12-1 on my picks I’ve struggled the last two weeks. While I have remained above 50% both weeks it has been just barely. I’m not really one to live in the past though. I look forward and reach toward the future. I don’t try to be a great man, I just try to be a man. That’s why I’m feeling confident in a big week for the Sports Man here. Heck, if the Jaguars and Buccaneers can both get into the win column then anything truly is possible. Anything like every one of these picks being right…
Washington over Philadelphia
The Eagles are somehow worse at home than on the road. They have been playing better since Nick Foles took over at QB but they get RGIII this week. Griffin looked a lot like his older self (and by that I mean last season) last week. I look for him to hook with Pierre Garçon for two scores.
FPTW–>Brent Celek. The Eagles tight end is only effective when he scores. Well lucky for him the Redskins have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in seven of their last nine games. If Brent can find the end zone he can pay off a sleeper at flex.
Cleveland over Cincinnati
The Browns have a good QB in Jason Campbell. He looked good against both KC and Baltimore. The Bengals have been inconsistent lately. They’ve lost back-to-back games and should have won both of them. Joe Hadden will mirror AJ Green and keep him in check forcing Andy Dalton to find other options. It will be close but Campbell makes a big play late in the fourth for a win.
FPTW–>Marvin Jones. It looked like Jones was going to be a big time receiver down the stretch after his huge game against the Jets. After 8 catches for 122 yards and 4 TDs, Jones has slumped a bit. He did put up 66 yards agianst the Dolphins but failed to find the end zone and last week put up a dud in Baltimore. With Hadden locking down Green, Jones could find himself open quite a bit.
Chicago over Baltimore
The Bears are in prime position to make a run at winning the NFC North. This is a big game especially with Jay Cutler out. Josh McCown has played very good in Cutlers absence. With this game being in Chicago and Ray Rice still being totally ineffective this year the Bears should cruise to a win.
FPTW–>Martellus Bennet. Bennet hasn’t posted double digit points since week six despite a TD in week seven. The Ravens are susceptible to tight ends scoring even though they don’t give up many yards. Bennet will need to score to have any chance at being effective.
New York Jets over Buffalo
This is the week the Jets break their pattern of alternating wins and loses. Buffalo will be with out their top receiving options. New York will be motivated by the Titans loss on Thursday to open up a little cushion in the wild card race.
FPTW–>Chris Ivory. Ivory looked like Jim Brown last week against the Saints. on 18 carries he gained 139 yards. It was his only his second game of double digit points this season. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to run for 111 yards last week so Ivory should have a good day. He may become a very good RB2 for fantasy playoff time.
Houston over Oakland
No Terrell Pryor means no chance. Case Keenum look to be the future in Houston. The game is in Houston and the home filed pays off. While Rashard Jennings ran well last week against the Giants the Texans will focus on stopping him and force Matthew McGloin to beat them. That ain’t happening.
FPTW–>Deandre Hopkins. Hopkins has improved with Keenum under center. He has posted double digit points in three of his last four games. With the Raiders focusing on stopping Andre Johnson I’d look for Hopkins to score this week.
Detroit over Pittsburgh
We saw how the Steelers played against a deep team when they went up against the Patriots. They took a beating worse than Billy Batts in “Goodfellas”. The Lions have that kind of depth. Calvin Johnson is going to score twice as will Reggie Bush. I expect this one to get ugly.
FPTW–>Jericho Cotchery. Cotch can really only be counted on when he scores a touchdown. The Steelers will be playing from behind much of the game so look for a lot of passing from them, When the Steelers last got trashed by New England Jericho had three scores. I wouldn’t expect that kind of production but at least one should be good.
Arizona over Jacksonville.
I’ll be honest, I really have no basis for this pick. This game just sucks that much. If only the Jags would listen and sign Tim Tebow this game might have been interesting. It’s really getting sad to watch Cards wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald waste away in Arizona. It’s too difficult to see Jacksonville winning two in a row so I’m going with the Cardinals in this one.
FPTW–>Rob Housler. Last week Housler caught 4 passes for 57 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. It was his second game this year with 10+ points. Carson Palmer has thrown his way 5+ times in three of the last four games so he’s getting more involved. The Jags defense is worse than the Texans so Housler may be a good bet to score again this week if the Cards get in the red zone.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Hell hath finally frozen over. The Bucs won a game. Let the Schianno for President campaign begin. I had to eat some crow this week from my family in the Tampa area. I also had to remind them it was one single win against a team dealing with locker room problems. That being said I actually see the Bucs winning a second straight game. No, I’m not currently on and drugs or hallucinogens. The fact remains for as bad as Tampa is, the Falcons are just as bad. In fact they may be worse. They aren’t even one dimensional, they’re no dimensional. In a battle for a high draft pick the Bucs win it.
FPTW–>Tim Wright. The Bucs tight end has scored 15+ points in three of four games. Unfortunately he’s also scored 3 or less in two of three. The good news for Wright owners in that Atlanta has given up a touchdown to a tight end in five of their last seven games.
San Diego over Miami
After a big win against the Bengals the Dolphins forgot to show up monday against the Bucs. San Diego has a high powered offense and Miami can’t afford to fall behind early. They won’t be able to play catch up. Especially if Ryan Tannehill is as off target as he was last week and the Dolphins are as ineffective at running the ball.
FPTW–>Mike Wallace. San Diego is terrible against the pass. tThey’ve allowed 210 yards a game and ten scores to wide receivers. Wallace was basically a no show last week catching only 4 balls for 15 yards. He has an great opportunity to break that this week and score at least once.
New Orleans over San Francisco
The Saints are home. That’s all that needs to be said.
FPTW–>Marques Colston. Colston scored his first touchdown since week 1 against the Cowboys last Sunday. Owners (those that actually held onto him) are hoping thats a sign of things to come. I don’t see the Saints hanging 40+ points like they did on Dallas so don’t look for that big game from Colston everyone’s been waiting for.
New York Giants over Green Bay
If Aaron Rodgers was playing this would be a completely different game. Scott Tolzien is starting though and that bodes well for the Giants chance to get back atop the NFC East. Their defense has been one of the better units as of late and I’d look for that to continue against an ineffective offense on the G-Mens home turf.
FPTW–>Andre Brown. In his first game back last week Brown racked up 115 yards on 30 carries. He’s clearly the top back in the Giants system. He gets a fdream matchup against a Packers team that has allowed 120+ rushing yards in back-to-back games.
Seattle over Minnesota
See New Orleans vs San Francisco above. Replace New Orleans with Seattle. End of conversation.
FPTW–>Percy Harvin. This is an obvious one. It’s Harvin’s first game this season after undergoing hip surgery. The Vikings have allowed a receiving touchdown in eight straight games. Look for Russell Wilson to find Harvin in the end zone this week. He’ll make it a priority to do so.
Denver over Kansas City
The Broncos are out to prove they’re still the big guys of the division. While the Chiefs perfect record this season is nice it still feels like a bit of a mirage. It will the the game to watch this week to see how Denver’s unstoppable offense manages against the Chiefs immovable defense. Manning may be a little hurt but a less than perfect Manning is still a top 5 QB. Broncos by 10 in this one.
FPTW–>Wes Welker. Hopefully Welker’s perforance against the Chargers last week was just a slight hiccup and not a sign of things to come. thee catches for twenty one yards is a disaster for Welker owners. While he hasn’t scored less than fifteen points in any other game this year it still remains an area to watch and make sure.
New England over Carolina
I know the Panthers have been one of the best teams over the past month and this game’s in Carolina. However, it’s hard to imagine the Pats losing after coming off a bye week. It’s just too much for Tom Brady and company to prepare. Cam Newton should put on a good show but it won’t be enough as the Patriots squeeze out a three point win on Monday night.
FPTW–>Danny Amendola. He lit up the Steelers in the last game to the tune of 4 catches and 122 yards. He also scored a touchdown for good measure. If Amendola can stay healthy he will finally be the consistent big time receiver Brady has been waiting for.
Joe Namath Guarantee Of The Week–> The Tennessee Titans loss to the Jaguars last week ended my perfect season on the guarantees. I will now be taking my fathers wonderful advice and changing my guarantee pick to the “Joe Namath Panty Hose Pick Of The Pick”. That being what it is look for Detroit to upend the Steelers if you’re still alive in a suicide pool. I know I’m not. Now I’m just on suicide watch. Godamn Titans!!!