Week 4 Studs/Duds Review
My week 4 studs and duds picks were a mixed bag. I had some right on the money, but was completely wrong about a few others. It was much better than my past two weeks though. Just like last week, my initial predictions are underlined and the actual stats are in bold.
Jordan Cameron, Cleveland TE-After missing so badly on him last week, I have to put him in my studs category. He showed great chemistry with Brian Hoyer last week, and I expect that to continue, even if the Bengals defense is much better than the Vikings defense. A TE is a quarterback’s best friend when under pressure and for hot reads on blitzes, so even if Cameron doesn’t rack up a ton of targets, he will still be a top five TE play. Prediction: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD
Actual Stats: 10 receptions, 91 yards, 1 TD. I had this one almost exact. Cameron has quickly ascended to the top of the TE rankings. I would put him only behind Jimmy Graham right now, and if he keeps it up, he could even surpass Graham over the course of the season. Those of you who drafted him late are probably close to first place in your leagues.
Peyton Manning, Denver QB-This one is fairly obvious, but I had to list him here. Peyton has 12 TD passes already and is on a record pace. The Eagles defense can’t stop a cold, so can you say shootout? I will be shocked if Peyton throws for 3 TDs or less. The only way I see him not being the top scoring fantasy QB this week is if the game is out of hand and he is pulled early to avoid injury. Prediction: 350 yards passing, 5 (yes 5) TDs.
Actual Stats: 327 yards passing, 4 TDs. I nailed this one for the most part, although Moreno running for that one TD ruined a perfect prediction. Peyton is clearly the MVP so far and shows no signs of letting up anytime soon.
Alfred Morris, Washington RB-Morris has quietly had a solid season so far. He hasn’t had his normal workload because the Redskins have been getting blown out so bad that they basically have to abandon the run game. This is the week he will get back on track and look like the true RB1 he is. He should be able to run through the Raiders defense easily, and if they Redskins can stay ahead, they will milk the clock, which will certainly pad his stats. Prediction: 105 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Actual Stats: 71 yards rushing, 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs. Morris was on his way to a decent day before leaving in the second half due to bruised ribs. I give myself an incomplete on this one, as I think he would have eventually topped 100 yards rushing and possibly scored if he didn’t get hurt. The injury is minor and the Redskins have a bye so he should be fine moving forward.
Marques Colston, New Orleans WR-Colston has had a fairly quiet start to the season, and I think this is the week he breaks out. The Miami defense has played well this year, but they are a little banged up and may be missing star Cameron Wake. We have seen this type of slow start before from Colston and he has always finished strong. Prediction: 8 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD.
Actual Stats: 7 receptions, 96 yards, 0 TDs. Colston had a very good game, but he didn’t get in the end zone because Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham scored most of the TDs. He is a solid WR2/3 and will get more red zone work over the course of the season as long as his problematic knees hold up.
Russell Wilson, Seattle QB-Wilson is projected to have a down week because of the good Houston pass defense and because Seattle relies on the run over the pass. However, I think Wilson will end up having a solid day. He did throw for 4 TDs last week against the Jaguars. He will have a solid, but unspectacular game. Start him unless you have a truly elite option, as he should easily get you about 15-18 points. Prediction: 225 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 2 passing TDs.
Actual Stats: 123 yards passing, 77 yards rushing, 0 TDs. Wilson had a very poor game, but was able to lead his team to a win, and that is all that matters. His scrambling ability kept plays alive and he was able to accumulate most of his rushing yards in the second half as his pass protection broke down. He will certainly have better fantasy days, but temper your expectations while the offensive line is banged up.
Arian Foster, Houston RB-I should just make a weekly dud for whichever running back has the unenviable task of facing the Seattle defense. While Foster hasn’t been horrible so far, he hasn’t lived up to his lofty draft status as he rounds into shape after missing the entire preseason. He has Seattle this week and San Francisco next week, so the next two games aren’t the greatest. He may poach a goal line TD against the Seahawks, but I wouldn’t expect the yardage totals to be high. Prediction: 60 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Actual Stats: 102 yards rushing, 69 yards receiving, 1 TD. I certainly didn’t see this coming. I benched Foster for Alfred Morris in my keeper league because of the poor matchup, and he of course tore up the Seahawks defense all game. He now looks completely healthy after using the first three weeks as a glorified training camp and can be put back on the upper-tier RB1 radar.
Josh Gordon, Cleveland WR-Gordon returned from a two game suspension last week and had a whopping 19 targets. That won’t happen this week, especially against an excellent Cincinnati pass defense. He may still put up some numbers, but don’t expect anything close to his production of last week. Prediction: 6 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs
Actual Stats: 4 receptions, 71 yards. I was correct on this prediction, as Gordon wasn’t able to put up the outstanding numbers from the week before. The Bengals defense was even decimated by injury and Gordon still wasn’t able to dominate. He should have better games as he auditions for a likely trade to a contender.
Brandon Myers, New York Giants TE-He has been Eli Manning’s safety valve this year and has produced fairly consistently. He hasn’t had eye-popping numbers, but he is almost like a poor man’s Jason Witten, as he has been good for about 5 catches and 50 yards a game. However, I don’t like his prospects this week. The Giants offensive line has been awful, and they may be without starters David Baas and Chris Snee. If one or both do play, they won’t be completely healthy. Add that in with a Chiefs defense that has been feasting on QBs, and you may see Myers blocking more instead of running routes. He can’t catch passes if he is helping his porous offensive line block, so temper your expectations until the Giants line shows it can play better. Prediction: 3 receptions, 20 yards, 0 TDs
Actual Stats: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 TDs. Myers was a non-factor in this game. I expected him to have a poor game, but even I didn’t expect him to lay a goose-egg. The Giants offense is in complete disarray right now, so bench him until it shows signs of life.
Philip Rivers, San Diego QB-Rivers has started off hot this year, but I can see a poor game coming. The Dallas defense is no slouch, and Rivers has had some real stinkers over the past few years. He’s only thrown one interception all season, so that makes me wonder if he’s due for a typical multi-interception game. If Dallas can pressure him early, it will throw him off his game and he will be more liable to make mistakes. Prediction: 240 yards passing, 1 TD, 3 INTs.
Actual Stats: 401 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT. I whiffed on this one. Rivers played one of the best games of his career and completely tore apart the Cowboys defense. Improbably, he is now under QB1 consideration each week due to this revival. I’m shocked he has looked this good, but I guess that shows what some good coaching can do for a player.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas RB-Murray had an outstanding game last week against the Rams, as he had 175 yards and a TD. On paper, he has another juicy matchup against a subpar Chargers defense. However, I don’t think he will be that effective. He is also coming off a career-high 26 carries, and you have to wonder how he will bounce back seeing as how he’s been so brittle in the past. I think that Dallas will rely more on the passing game this week. Prediction: 70 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Actual Stats: 70 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs. This is my first absolutely perfect prediction. I doubt this happens again this year, but for once I can say that I was exactly right. Murray is a solid RB2 depending on matchups, but is a little too inconsistent for my taste.