Week 1 Studs/Duds Review

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My weekly post on Wednesday is going to be a review of my studs and duds column.  I will take a look back at my predictions and see how good/bad they were.  I was surprisingly fairly spot on this week.  I have underlined my original predictions and bolded the actual stat lines.  All in all, I had a fairly solid first week and will post my week 2 studs and duds tomorrow.

Studs

  1. Tony Romo-Vastly underrated in fantasy, and for some reason, he always seems to play well against the Giants, with multiple 300+ yard games recently.  I think this game could be a shootout, and shootouts are great for fantasy quarterbacks.  Prediction: 315 yards passing and 3 passing TDs.

Actual stats: 263 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 1 INT.  Romo had a pretty good game, and I wasn’t too far off on this prediction.  I expected the Cowboys to actually be trailing for most of the game, which is why I had him passing for over 300 yards.  Other than that, I was pretty spot on except for one less passing TD.

  1. Alfred Morris-He has a very enticing match-up against an Eagles D that looked horrible in the preseason.  Plus, I don’t think Shanahan will have many designed runs for RG3, and that should mean more carries for Morris.  Also, don’t forget that the Eagles will be trying to push the pace in Chip Kelly’s offense, so if the Redskins want to keep that offense off the field, there’s no better way to do that than by running the ball consistently, especially if the Philly run D can’t stop them.  Add all of these factors up and I think Morris will provide one of the bigger fantasy lines in week 1.  Prediction: 120 yards rushing, 2 TDs.

Actual Stats: 45 yards rushing, 1 TD.  This was a whiff for me.  Morris fumbled his first carry of the season and his night was forgettable, aside from his nice TD run.  That TD allowed him to salvage a manageable fantasy night, because he didn’t do much else.  Part of that was because the Redskins were down all night and had to pass, and also because of his poor start.  I expect him to rebound and be a focal point of the offense. 

  1. Michael Vick-He’s healthy for now and I don’t think the Washington defense is a top-flight unit.  Chip Kelly probably has a ton of tricks up his sleeve to debut in the opener, and I think that this game will end up being a high-scoring affair.  Plus, everyone remembers what happened last time Vick faced the Redskins on Monday Night Football, right?  Prediction: 300 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD.

Actual Stats: 203 yards passing, 54 yards rushing, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD.  For the most part, Vick had his way with the Redskins.  The only prediction where I was slightly off was I figured he would pass for more yards, but I guess he didn’t really have to with LeSean McCoy running wild all night.

 

  1. Calvin Johnson-Not much of a shock to see him on this list, is it?  He has a nice, tantalizing match-up at home against the Vikings, and nobody in their secondary should be able to stop Megatron from running wild.  I expect the Lions to be throwing all day, much like they did last year.  Johnson will open up the year with a bang.  Prediction: 9 receptions, 125 yards, 1 TD.

Actual Stats: 4 receptions, 37 yards, 0 TDs.  Whoops.  Boy was I wrong about this prediction.  Although in my defense, Megatron did have a TD called back because he doesn’t like to secure the ball sometimes.  That would have salvaged at least being partially correct on this prediction.  Instead, he made me look like a fool with what will probably be his worst game of the year.   

  1. Vernon Davis-I am going to buy into the hype this year, and especially early in the season while Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham work their way back from injury.  Davis is a match-up nightmare, as he is too fast for linebackers and too strong for safeties.  He really came on strong in the playoffs last year, and I see that continuing, especially against the Packers.  The Packers have a pretty good secondary, so they may be able to slow down Boldin and the other Niners receivers, but I don’t think they can slow down Davis.  He probably has the best chance of all of my week one studs to turn into a dud.  Prediction: 7 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD.

Actual Stats: 6 receptions, 98 yards, 2 TDs.  I predicted this one almost exactly as it happened, except for the one extra TD.  I expected Davis to be a focal point and that proved true.  He won’t have 13 catch games like Boldin, but he should be a lock for 4-5 catches of 20 yards each and is always a threat to score.

Duds

  1. Cam Newton-Even though Seattle is on the road, I automatically downgrade most skill players facing that hellacious defense.  While they are missing Bruce Irvin due to suspension and probably Chris Clemons as he recovers from ACL surgery, the defense should still be able to have its way with the Panthers.  Cam is usually a must start….except when he is facing a defense of this caliber.  If you have a solid backup option, I’d strongly consider it.  Prediction: 250 yards passing, 1 passing TD, 0 rushing TDs.

Actual Stats: 125 yards passing, 1 passing TD, 0 rushing TDs.  Newtown performed about as bad as I anticipated, but what surprised me the most was the lack of passing yards with the Seahawks missing Brandon Browner and some of their best pass rushers.  Cam should rebound in the coming weeks and will be just fine.

  1. Eddie Lacy-While he will get most of the carries for the Packers, the Niners run defense has been one of the best in football for the past two years and I expect that to continue.  Plus, the Niners showed major weaknesses in the secondary last year in the playoffs and are starting a rookie safety in Eric Reid, so I’m sure Aaron Rodgers will pick on him as much as possible.  Lacy might be more valuable later in the season, but this is one match-up to avoid.  Prediction: 60 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving, 0 TDs.

Actual stats: 41 rushing yards, 31 receiving yards, 1 TD.  I was a little off here, but would have been much better without the 2 yard TD run by Lacy.  Even with the TD, he wasn’t truly a fantasy weapon, but should get better against easier defenses. 

  1. Rashard Mendenhall-Supposedly healthy, but I’m not sure even someone like Adrian Peterson could break out running behind the Arizona offensive line.  He also faces a very underrated and very good Rams front 7, on the road.  I just can’t see how Mendenhall does much of anything this game.  At best, maybe he will poach a 2 yard TD run.  In what may become a recurring theme, avoid starting him this week.  Prediction: 50 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs.

Actual stats: 60 yards rushing, 4 yards receiving, 0 TDs.  I was right on the money here, as Mendenhall predictably had a terrible day.  The Arizona offensive line is pathetic and Mendenhall is a shell of himself after injuries.

  1. Mike Wallace-I drafted him in my keeper league, but he is staying on my bench for this week.  He will probably be matched up with Joe Haden, and that alone usually spells trouble for the opposition.  He hasn’t looked in synch with Ryan Tannehill yet, so I would rather keep him on my bench for now until the chemistry shows.  If he shows signs of life, I will gladly insert him into my lineup, but if you have better options, I wouldn’t start him this week.  Prediction: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs.

Actual Stats: 1 catch for 15 yards.  I was right on the money with this one, and Wallace performed even worse than predicted.  It’s probably an aberration because he was shadowed by Joe Haden much of the day, but his Miami debut was forgettable.

  1. Any Jets player-I would normally list one player here, but I just couldn’t resist.  The Tampa Bay D is going to be vastly improved this year, especially after the additions of Revis and Goldson.  Combine that ferocious D with a Jets offense that has next to no weapons AND is starting a rookie QB who looked like he should have been back in college, and it’s a recipe for disaster.  This could be even uglier than the 34-0 thrashing they received at the hands of the Niners last year.  It’s certainly possible that the Jets may never cross midfield if they have drives that start in their own territory.  Prediction: two long field goals, multiple turnovers, and at least one defensive TD for Tampa Bay.

Actual stats: 2 field goals, one offensive TD and 0 TB TDs.  The Jets performed better than expected.  It wasn’t a great offensive display by any means, but they were able to move the ball at times and took advantage of the bumbling Bucs.  I wouldn’t consider this a complete whiff, but it was close.

 

About Ryan Lewis

I've been participating in fantasy sports for almost a decade. I first started off doing only fantasy football and baseball, but soon grew to love fantasy basketball and hockey as well. For fantasy football, I've participated in a variety of leagues, such as standard, PPR, and auction over the years. In the past 5 years, I've even branched out to fantasy golf and fantasy NASCAR. I've been a die-hard San Francisco 49ers fan for 23 years, which has had many ups and downs.

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